Tuesday, May 19, 2009

H5N1 + H1N1 could = ???

I'm Just Wondering... how things like Pandemics start...

Here was my morning email from Yale Infectious disease (top-notch scientists and doctors and researchers, maybe the best of the best)... and realize, these people are not alarmists... note the Moderators H5N1 + H1N1 comments, which are really science-speak for nightmare scenario...

AVIAN INFLUENZA (36): CHINA (QINGHAI), WILD BIRDS***********************************************
A ProMED-mail post<http://www.promedmail.org>ProMED-mail is a program of theInternational Society for Infectious Diseases<http://www.isid.org>
Date: Mon 18 May 2009Source: Huanqiu.com [trans. Rapp.AH, edited]<http://healthmap.org/ln.php?199052&u3439>

On 17 May 2009, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture announced that the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory had confirmed avian influenza among migratory birds in Qinghai province. According to the briefing, the regional veterinary departments in Gahai found dead migratory birds on 8 May 2009. Specimens were collected and sent for testing. On 12 May 2009, the Qinghai Provincial Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center detected weak positive signals for highly pathogenic avian influenza using RT-PCR. On 17 May 2009, the birds were confirmed to be infected with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza by the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory. As of yesterday [17 May 2009], 121 wild birds had died.In response to the outbreak, access to the affected area was restricted for disinfection and culling of backyard poultry. All 121 dead wild birds and 600 culled poultry have been processed.At present, there has been no disruption of life. No outbreak among poultry has been found in Qinghai province.- --
Communicated by:HealthMap alerts via ProMED-mailRapporteur Angela Huang

[An official notification on the said outbreak has been sent to the OIE by Dr Zhang Zhongqui, Deputy Director General, China Animal Disease Control Centre, Veterinary Bureau, Beijing, PRC on 17 May 2009. According to the report, the measures to be applied are: "Vaccination in response to the outbreak."
See, with map, at <http://www.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=event_summary&reportid=8107>.

Information on the species involved in this so-called "migratory birds" event is anticipated. An extensive outbreak in wild geese and other wild birds was observed in Qinghai exactly 4 years ago, in May 2005. It was followed by an outbreak in neighboring Xinjiang autonomous region.Since the appearance of the novel A/H1N1 swine-related virus in the international arena in April 2009, the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus has been put, unjustifiably but not surprisingly, somewhat outside the public spotlights. Simultaneous circulation of both viruses may lead to serious consequences, particularly in countries with considerable pig populations, in case co-infection of pigs with both viruses occur, potentially followed by virus reassortments. These may, if the worse scenario materializes, potentially combine the infectivity in humans of the novel H1N1 with the high pathogenicity of HPAI H5N1. China has the potential to be the site of such development, deserving close follow-up and effective, immediate control measures. - Mod.AS]

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