I'm Just Wondering... when (not if) the real, hugely fatal Pandemic finally hits the United States... what is going to happen to the Church??
How will the Evangelical and Protestant Church of America behave in the midst of a huge and highly fatal Pandemic-Infectious Disease?
Hmmmm....
A few years back, when the H5N1 ("Avian Influenza" Bird Flu) Pandemic Prep was beginning to emerge, I was part of an on-line Bulletin Board for Church leaders on this very topic. SARS hit, and that BB heated up for a few months... but it pretty much fell off into quietness.
However, along the way, there was a great amount of belief among the Christian Pastors there that their churches would become 'beacons of life and hope' in the middle of a Pandemic with high mortality... but a few of the Pastors were less than sure that their church would 'wade straight into the Pandemic', and that their congregations would become hugely self-survival focused and isolationist.
A previous post about the 90% 'pastors believe their Church is there to reach out', while the 90% of congregants surveyed believed 'their Church was their to meet their needs' comes to mind...
A book I'm starting back into is Charles Colsen's 'Against the Night', a treatise about the behaviour of the Church in the Dark Ages...
I'm Just Wondering how the American Church will respond... if the last 25+ years related to HIV/AIDS is any indicator, I think we're in for a wild ride...
cbaj
Thursday, April 30, 2009
It Takes an Epidemic to Provoke Our Base Attitudes
I'm Just Wondering... how do people generally, and the Media specifically keep their racist and fear-mongering motivations under wraps in normal times??
The H1N1 Influenza Epidemic (soon to jump to full Pandemic Status officially) has done nothing but provoke two nasty sides of the human heart:
<> I'm hearing a great deal of racism towards Mexicans and Mexico for being the epicenter for the disease emergence... when the "Spanish Flu" of 1918 that killed 100 milliion people was wrongly named since it emerged in the United States (The Spanish got the distinction because they kept good data...). The virology of this virus means it could have 'jumped' anywhere to it's current form... matter of fact, the 'synchronicity' theory of viral emergence has re-surfaced to post that this H1N1 virus may have jumped to human-to-human transmisison silmultaneously in Mexico and a few other spots... there rarely is ONE jump spot...
<>I'm beginning to hear media outlets (sic: Channel 9 and 10 in San Diego) that, desperate for a 'scoop' have begun to dip into low-ball reporting and do everything they can to fear-monger and over-exagerate the H1N1 data for the day. There is some great media going on, like NBC national news and NPR radio... then there are the local bottom-feeders...
This H1N1 influenza will be significant, but in the range of a true Pandemic... just wait, we're actually due for a couple REAL nasty diseases... everybody needs to read Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plague", which is a brilliantly-informed history of the last 100 years, and a portrait of why we are perfectly set up for a really significant, highly fatal Pandemic. This H1N1 ain't it; H5N1 may become one. My guess is the next one is brewing in the antibiotic-steriod soup that has become our US poultry industry.
cbaj
The H1N1 Influenza Epidemic (soon to jump to full Pandemic Status officially) has done nothing but provoke two nasty sides of the human heart:
<> I'm hearing a great deal of racism towards Mexicans and Mexico for being the epicenter for the disease emergence... when the "Spanish Flu" of 1918 that killed 100 milliion people was wrongly named since it emerged in the United States (The Spanish got the distinction because they kept good data...). The virology of this virus means it could have 'jumped' anywhere to it's current form... matter of fact, the 'synchronicity' theory of viral emergence has re-surfaced to post that this H1N1 virus may have jumped to human-to-human transmisison silmultaneously in Mexico and a few other spots... there rarely is ONE jump spot...
<>I'm beginning to hear media outlets (sic: Channel 9 and 10 in San Diego) that, desperate for a 'scoop' have begun to dip into low-ball reporting and do everything they can to fear-monger and over-exagerate the H1N1 data for the day. There is some great media going on, like NBC national news and NPR radio... then there are the local bottom-feeders...
This H1N1 influenza will be significant, but in the range of a true Pandemic... just wait, we're actually due for a couple REAL nasty diseases... everybody needs to read Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plague", which is a brilliantly-informed history of the last 100 years, and a portrait of why we are perfectly set up for a really significant, highly fatal Pandemic. This H1N1 ain't it; H5N1 may become one. My guess is the next one is brewing in the antibiotic-steriod soup that has become our US poultry industry.
cbaj
Monday, April 27, 2009
Mexico is a Developed country 2009... get it right!
I'm Just Wondering... when are American Christians, especially Californians, going to recognize that Mexico is truely a Developed country, and stop (stop, STOP!) believeing/acting/treating it as a "Third-World Poverty Country"...???
Hmmm???
OK, to start out with, just about everybody with any regard for working Internationally has declared that all the reference to "Third World" is very degrading, and is some big-dog attitude about "well, WE are the First world!" garbage... Dr Bryant Myers from World Vision, now Prof of Intl Studies at Fuller said at a lecture I attended last year that anybody who calls any country 'Third World" has shown how uninformed they really are, and probably shouldn't work internationally!
OK, here is the data source for my claim about Mexico: The United Nations
Visit: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/
Better yet, download the data tables at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDI_2008_EN_Tables.pdf
The United Nations Development Project (UNDP) 2008 tables are solid, well-documented aggregate data from 2006. They are enormously dependable. Definitely, looking at the national Life Expectancy (average), it will give you a clue as to many aspects of the situation.
The "Human Development Index" (HDI) is a very well-positioned ranking of nations and their overall realities. There are 179 nations ranked in 2006.
The HDI breaks the nations up into "High Human Development", "Moderate" and "Low".
Iceland is at the top of the "High" list with Life expectancy of 81.6 yrs... the US is 15th with Life Expectancy of 78 yrs
The "Mod" list starts at 76 with Turkey being the 'top-mod' country, Life Expectancy 71.6.
The "Low" list starts at #154, with Nigeria being that 'top-low', Life Expectancy, 46.6 years.
The last 15 nations are considered in most literature the "least developed countries" or LDC's, and distinguished by very high mortality, disease burden and low Life Expectancy. The bottom of the list is Sierra Leone, 42. 1 yrs. Ouch.
OK, about this particular rant of mine... what about Mexico??
According to the UNDP and the HDI, in 2006, Mexico is ranked as a High Human Development nation, with a ranking of 51, and a Life Expectancy of 75.8 yrs.
In addition, a 91.7 % literacy level in the adult population, only 5% of the population with absolutely no access to drinkable water, only 5% children under weight (under age 5) and 17.6% of the population under tha national poverty line. Not bad.
If you peel into the UN reports deeper (as I have), you will find that the problem of such countries as Mexico is that a significant percent of the population lives remotely, and creates difficulty in providing development, public health and education. As well, the transition away from remote indigenous populations opposed to any kind education and public health interventions (they are getting old and dying off) are decreasing, and more schools and health centers are being located and accessed by the Mexican population in remote locations.
It always gets down to access and the economy of a country...
Yes, there are still problems in Mexico. Actually, looking at Bryant Myers writings and what he calls "Structures of Sin" will give great enlightenment to the real problems of Mexico. Alcoholism, spousal abuse, tobacco, drugs, sex trade, tribalism, machismo domination and violence... as well as narco-traffikking are keeping Mexico locked in some pretty nasty stuff.
Mexico needs the liberating Gospel of Jesus more than it needs non-Spanish speaking outreachers dropping off old clothes and bags of beans!
However... anybody who calls Mexico a "Third World Country" should never be in mission leadership (or be allowed to go on a Mexico trip, for that matter!) and any American Christian involved in any work in Mexico needs to start viewing the reality of Mexico as a High Human Development nation with a developed and stable level of an economy.
Final thought: why do so many Americans hold Mexico as "a Third World pit of Poverty" country??? My suspicion is that
[1] it's the only place they've been to outside of their region of the USA or Canada,
[2] they have no education or experience in understanding what they are seeing,
[3] Christian leadership in mission trips and the like also lack any skills in International relief/development, and really don't know what they are looking at either, and finally...
[4] it's something I'm currently writing a bit on: the difference between Perceived Disparity (what the visitor sees is significantly poorer than their home neighborhood) versus Total Poverty (a total lack of basic human resources of safe water, basic food, safe shelter, safe waste disposal, basic health services and educational opportunities). Many times the Christians see a significant Perceived Disparity and confuse it/believe it to be Total Poverty... when yes, the neighborhood they are in is poorer than their home experience is cozy San Diego or Ohio, but the people in that Mexican neighborhood with dirt roads have safe water, adequate food, relatively safe shelter, adequate waste disposal, kids go to school, there is a health center a Km away, and the people live to average Life Expectancy of 75.8 years in that neighborhood.
(But don't forget about the Structures of Sin... )
Cbaj
Hmmm???
OK, to start out with, just about everybody with any regard for working Internationally has declared that all the reference to "Third World" is very degrading, and is some big-dog attitude about "well, WE are the First world!" garbage... Dr Bryant Myers from World Vision, now Prof of Intl Studies at Fuller said at a lecture I attended last year that anybody who calls any country 'Third World" has shown how uninformed they really are, and probably shouldn't work internationally!
OK, here is the data source for my claim about Mexico: The United Nations
Visit: http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-2008/
Better yet, download the data tables at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDI_2008_EN_Tables.pdf
The United Nations Development Project (UNDP) 2008 tables are solid, well-documented aggregate data from 2006. They are enormously dependable. Definitely, looking at the national Life Expectancy (average), it will give you a clue as to many aspects of the situation.
The "Human Development Index" (HDI) is a very well-positioned ranking of nations and their overall realities. There are 179 nations ranked in 2006.
The HDI breaks the nations up into "High Human Development", "Moderate" and "Low".
Iceland is at the top of the "High" list with Life expectancy of 81.6 yrs... the US is 15th with Life Expectancy of 78 yrs
The "Mod" list starts at 76 with Turkey being the 'top-mod' country, Life Expectancy 71.6.
The "Low" list starts at #154, with Nigeria being that 'top-low', Life Expectancy, 46.6 years.
The last 15 nations are considered in most literature the "least developed countries" or LDC's, and distinguished by very high mortality, disease burden and low Life Expectancy. The bottom of the list is Sierra Leone, 42. 1 yrs. Ouch.
OK, about this particular rant of mine... what about Mexico??
According to the UNDP and the HDI, in 2006, Mexico is ranked as a High Human Development nation, with a ranking of 51, and a Life Expectancy of 75.8 yrs.
In addition, a 91.7 % literacy level in the adult population, only 5% of the population with absolutely no access to drinkable water, only 5% children under weight (under age 5) and 17.6% of the population under tha national poverty line. Not bad.
If you peel into the UN reports deeper (as I have), you will find that the problem of such countries as Mexico is that a significant percent of the population lives remotely, and creates difficulty in providing development, public health and education. As well, the transition away from remote indigenous populations opposed to any kind education and public health interventions (they are getting old and dying off) are decreasing, and more schools and health centers are being located and accessed by the Mexican population in remote locations.
It always gets down to access and the economy of a country...
Yes, there are still problems in Mexico. Actually, looking at Bryant Myers writings and what he calls "Structures of Sin" will give great enlightenment to the real problems of Mexico. Alcoholism, spousal abuse, tobacco, drugs, sex trade, tribalism, machismo domination and violence... as well as narco-traffikking are keeping Mexico locked in some pretty nasty stuff.
Mexico needs the liberating Gospel of Jesus more than it needs non-Spanish speaking outreachers dropping off old clothes and bags of beans!
However... anybody who calls Mexico a "Third World Country" should never be in mission leadership (or be allowed to go on a Mexico trip, for that matter!) and any American Christian involved in any work in Mexico needs to start viewing the reality of Mexico as a High Human Development nation with a developed and stable level of an economy.
Final thought: why do so many Americans hold Mexico as "a Third World pit of Poverty" country??? My suspicion is that
[1] it's the only place they've been to outside of their region of the USA or Canada,
[2] they have no education or experience in understanding what they are seeing,
[3] Christian leadership in mission trips and the like also lack any skills in International relief/development, and really don't know what they are looking at either, and finally...
[4] it's something I'm currently writing a bit on: the difference between Perceived Disparity (what the visitor sees is significantly poorer than their home neighborhood) versus Total Poverty (a total lack of basic human resources of safe water, basic food, safe shelter, safe waste disposal, basic health services and educational opportunities). Many times the Christians see a significant Perceived Disparity and confuse it/believe it to be Total Poverty... when yes, the neighborhood they are in is poorer than their home experience is cozy San Diego or Ohio, but the people in that Mexican neighborhood with dirt roads have safe water, adequate food, relatively safe shelter, adequate waste disposal, kids go to school, there is a health center a Km away, and the people live to average Life Expectancy of 75.8 years in that neighborhood.
(But don't forget about the Structures of Sin... )
Cbaj
Friday, April 24, 2009
Pandemics: Swine Flu... or just swine-ness??
I'm Just Wondering...
The synchronicity of events is sometimes a bit wierd.
Today, the news broke a story of the "Swine Flu Variant" virus.
Yes, it's terrible. Over 600 cases with possibly 60 dead in Mexico City, many healthcare workers (my brothers and sisters!)... Mexico City health officials think the incidence (# people sick) may climb to 1500 by next week... here in San Diego, we are one of the US epicenters...
Track all this on a good site without Apocalyptic panic www.cdc.gov
Those of us who read Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plauge" know this is not alarmist, but the normal emergence of a new disease in the 21st century. There will be many, many others to come.
However, the synchronicity comes with the release of a study this week from one SDSU professor (with another author from Texas) regarding how 'narcissism epidemic' has taken over the culture, particulary in women.
Read the 'brief' at : http://www.sdsuniverse.info/sdsuniverse/news.aspx?s=71137
Just wondering... which is worse?? cbaj
The synchronicity of events is sometimes a bit wierd.
Today, the news broke a story of the "Swine Flu Variant" virus.
Yes, it's terrible. Over 600 cases with possibly 60 dead in Mexico City, many healthcare workers (my brothers and sisters!)... Mexico City health officials think the incidence (# people sick) may climb to 1500 by next week... here in San Diego, we are one of the US epicenters...
Track all this on a good site without Apocalyptic panic www.cdc.gov
Those of us who read Laurie Garrett's "The Coming Plauge" know this is not alarmist, but the normal emergence of a new disease in the 21st century. There will be many, many others to come.
However, the synchronicity comes with the release of a study this week from one SDSU professor (with another author from Texas) regarding how 'narcissism epidemic' has taken over the culture, particulary in women.
Read the 'brief' at : http://www.sdsuniverse.info/sdsuniverse/news.aspx?s=71137
Just wondering... which is worse?? cbaj
Monday, April 20, 2009
Santa Muerte and Jesus Malverde in Tijuana
I'm Just Wondering... and confused...
The Mexican Gov't (as reported in the San Diego Union Tribute, front page Sunday 05 April 09) is taking direct action against the devotional shrines towards 2 minor deities called "Santa Muerte" (saint of death) and Jesus Malverde. These worship shrines are set up by many people who pay homage to these two 'saints', but with a large following in the narco-traffic culture.
I see these shrines dotting the local roads and in many of the poor colonias of Tijuana and down in San Vicente...
The Tijuana police have been destroying these shrines (as the SD U-T reports), hoping to break the superstitious ethos of the drug trade...
Odd to me is the major outcry that the Catholic priests in Tijuana have raised over these shrines being destroyed...???
Another bit to consider that 88% of Mexicans claim to be Catholic, but only 46% attend Catholic services regularly...
The Mexican Gov't (as reported in the San Diego Union Tribute, front page Sunday 05 April 09) is taking direct action against the devotional shrines towards 2 minor deities called "Santa Muerte" (saint of death) and Jesus Malverde. These worship shrines are set up by many people who pay homage to these two 'saints', but with a large following in the narco-traffic culture.
I see these shrines dotting the local roads and in many of the poor colonias of Tijuana and down in San Vicente...
The Tijuana police have been destroying these shrines (as the SD U-T reports), hoping to break the superstitious ethos of the drug trade...
Odd to me is the major outcry that the Catholic priests in Tijuana have raised over these shrines being destroyed...???
Another bit to consider that 88% of Mexicans claim to be Catholic, but only 46% attend Catholic services regularly...
The Hard Data for Mexico and Baja Norte... Protestants
I'm Just Wondering... about Mexican Protestantism and the advance of the Gospel in that country.
Here is the hard data, with source citations:
Basically, the Mexican 200 Census reports that 9.9% of the population are Protestants overall, and that in Baja California Norte, the percentage is 5.6%
The main data site, which was established in April 2006 by the Mexican Gov’t reports a great deal of different data than I had in my little notebook from previous Mexican government info.
Here it is:
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/rutinas/ept.asp?t=mrel08&s=est&c=2589
Here are the big numbers (some obtained from other parts of the main site www.inegi.org/mx :
(important to knote that my calculations are taken from the raw data: how the www site came up with some of their stated % stats is beyond me…)
Total Mexican Population, 2005 Census 103,263,388
Total Mexican Protestants, 2000 Census 4 408 159
Calculated Percentage: 9.9 % (see note 1)
Total Population Baja Norte, 2005 Census 2,844,469
Total Baja Norte Protestants, 2000 158, 874
Calculated Percentage: 5.6 % (see note 2)
Commentary: Yes, there is a mixing of the 2005 and the 2000 census numbers. This is because the Mexican Government does census on general population every 5 years, but the demographics of religion are only done every 10 years.
Note 1: The percentage of Protestants to Population may be higher 2000-2005, but not less.
Note 2: The percentage mix of Protestants to Baja Population may have also shifted 2000-2005, but probably not less.
<><><>
Catholics
The Mexican gov’t site reports Catholics (people stating they were Catholics) as 88% of the total Population in 2000
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/sistemas/cgpv2000/religion/rel01.asp?s=est&c=11938
However, in another section, they break out that only 46% of those who stated they were Catholic attend weekly Catholic services.
<><>
On the Catholic statistic, the other 42% may, as Patrick Johnstone infers in "Operation World" be reflective of 'cultural Catholics' who will respond "I am Catholic" in the Census, but only attend a church service on Christmas, baptisms, 15th birthdays, weddings and funerals...
Here is the hard data, with source citations:
Basically, the Mexican 200 Census reports that 9.9% of the population are Protestants overall, and that in Baja California Norte, the percentage is 5.6%
The main data site, which was established in April 2006 by the Mexican Gov’t reports a great deal of different data than I had in my little notebook from previous Mexican government info.
Here it is:
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/rutinas/ept.asp?t=mrel08&s=est&c=2589
Here are the big numbers (some obtained from other parts of the main site www.inegi.org/mx :
(important to knote that my calculations are taken from the raw data: how the www site came up with some of their stated % stats is beyond me…)
Total Mexican Population, 2005 Census 103,263,388
Total Mexican Protestants, 2000 Census 4 408 159
Calculated Percentage: 9.9 % (see note 1)
Total Population Baja Norte, 2005 Census 2,844,469
Total Baja Norte Protestants, 2000 158, 874
Calculated Percentage: 5.6 % (see note 2)
Commentary: Yes, there is a mixing of the 2005 and the 2000 census numbers. This is because the Mexican Government does census on general population every 5 years, but the demographics of religion are only done every 10 years.
Note 1: The percentage of Protestants to Population may be higher 2000-2005, but not less.
Note 2: The percentage mix of Protestants to Baja Population may have also shifted 2000-2005, but probably not less.
<><><>
Catholics
The Mexican gov’t site reports Catholics (people stating they were Catholics) as 88% of the total Population in 2000
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/sistemas/cgpv2000/religion/rel01.asp?s=est&c=11938
However, in another section, they break out that only 46% of those who stated they were Catholic attend weekly Catholic services.
<><>
On the Catholic statistic, the other 42% may, as Patrick Johnstone infers in "Operation World" be reflective of 'cultural Catholics' who will respond "I am Catholic" in the Census, but only attend a church service on Christmas, baptisms, 15th birthdays, weddings and funerals...
Thanks for keeping me honest...
20 Apr
I rec'd an email from a very astute friend, asking some questions about my numbers on Mexican Protestants.
I went to my books, then did some internet searching... guess what! A new Mex Gov't site had totally different numbers...
Anyway, I will err on the side of published data and go with their numbers... so the previous blogs were edited to reflect these numbers.
I humbly apologise if I misled anyone with previous numbers... I'll work harder in the future, and appreciate people 'holding my feet to the fire'...
CBaj
I rec'd an email from a very astute friend, asking some questions about my numbers on Mexican Protestants.
I went to my books, then did some internet searching... guess what! A new Mex Gov't site had totally different numbers...
Anyway, I will err on the side of published data and go with their numbers... so the previous blogs were edited to reflect these numbers.
I humbly apologise if I misled anyone with previous numbers... I'll work harder in the future, and appreciate people 'holding my feet to the fire'...
CBaj
Bono gets it right:NYTimes Op-Ed
I'm Just Wondering... if anyone has thought of the bigger 'spiritual' implicaitons of our societal economic crisis besides "it's all gonna burn!" and "a man reaps what he sews..."
Bono has, and it was his Easter New York Times Op-Ed
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/opinion/19bono.html?_r=2
Aptly named: It’s 2009. Do You Know Where Your Soul Is?
A really good read... better the third time. Be sure and catch his self-description of repentance in a French church.
Chris
Bono has, and it was his Easter New York Times Op-Ed
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/opinion/19bono.html?_r=2
Aptly named: It’s 2009. Do You Know Where Your Soul Is?
A really good read... better the third time. Be sure and catch his self-description of repentance in a French church.
Chris
Friday, April 17, 2009
Something Wonderful about Susan Boyle
I'm Just Wondering... is it cheering for the 'common, non-glam underdog'... or to watch Simon eat his shoe??
Susan Boyle Singer Britain Got Talent BGT - AGT 2009 Episode - Saturday 11th April
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-1Xl5Ttu0&feature=rec-HM-rn
Great, great stuff! Watch it at least twice... listen to the lyrics of her choice from Le Miserables
Susan Boyle Singer Britain Got Talent BGT - AGT 2009 Episode - Saturday 11th April
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow-1Xl5Ttu0&feature=rec-HM-rn
Great, great stuff! Watch it at least twice... listen to the lyrics of her choice from Le Miserables
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Missionaries Still Need Mission Health Training 2009
I'm Just Wondering....
...why, over the last 7 years, I have met nothing but a stone wall with mission leaders and mission pastors regarding their missionaries... both short-term and long-term... to take a little time and recieve training, especially preventative, in the sub-speciality of Missionary Health for themselves... ??
These leaders have pretty much blown me off, citing either theological "God will protect them/us" stuff (which is not supported by the fact that half of the field missionarues in the 1800's died of Malaria, Cholera or Yellow Fever... which is hugely preventable now), or that 'we'll just deal with any illnesses IF they happen"... assuming they will be mild little problems that a week of antibiotics will take care of... also writ large in that is "we don't have time/money to do all that stupid health stuff... so stop bothering me..."
I get that alot.
Case To Point of why this is a bad idea: Center for Disease Control (CDC) Report 16 Apr 09
I just recieved my weekly CDC update.
Here is the ABSTRACT: "CDC received reports of 1,505 cases of malaria among persons in the United States, including one transfusion-related case and one fatal case, with onset of symptoms in 2007. The highest estimated relative case rates of malaria among travelers occurred among those returning from West Africa. Of 701 U.S. civilians who acquired malaria abroad, 441 (62.9%) reported that they had not followed an appropriate chemoprophylactic drug regimen. Persons at risk for malaria infection should take one of the recommended chemoprophylaxis regimens appropriate for the region of travel and use personal protection measures to prevent mosquito bites."
(Reference:
http://www.cdc.gov:80/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5802a1.htm?s_cid=ss5802a1_e
April 17, 2009 / 58(SS02);1-16
Malaria Surveillance --- United States, 2007
Sonja Mali, MPH Stefanie Steele, RN, MPH Laurence Slutsker, MD, MPH Paul M. Arguin, MD )
COMMENTARY: Malaria is a horrible disease to contract. Even when you take the pills, you can still get a minor case with lesser long-term problems... but Malaria kills 9 million people every year in the world... including missionaries. I have had 3 cases of returning missionaries in my practice who didn't take the meds or do the 'don't get bit!" stuff, and they got cerebral malaria and still can't walk a straight line and have all kinds of health issues, many years later...
Seeing the CDC data, and the "441 (62.9%) reported that they had not followed an appropriate chemoprophylactic drug regimen"... I'm Just Wondering how many of that reported number of Americans who contracted Malaria in West Africa were pastors or missionaries who didn't take the meds because "God will protect us" or "we'll just deal with it if it happens" or "I ain't got time/money"...?
CLOSING: I have posted on my website www.bajmission.com a couple of general pages of missionary health stuff, mainly prevention... and prevention of the stuff that can kill you or really goof up your life for a long time. It's free of charge... I hope more people read it and do something about it!! And yes, I am still hoping to do seminar and training sessions for missionaries so the Stay Healthy on their Mission Trips... cbaj
...why, over the last 7 years, I have met nothing but a stone wall with mission leaders and mission pastors regarding their missionaries... both short-term and long-term... to take a little time and recieve training, especially preventative, in the sub-speciality of Missionary Health for themselves... ??
These leaders have pretty much blown me off, citing either theological "God will protect them/us" stuff (which is not supported by the fact that half of the field missionarues in the 1800's died of Malaria, Cholera or Yellow Fever... which is hugely preventable now), or that 'we'll just deal with any illnesses IF they happen"... assuming they will be mild little problems that a week of antibiotics will take care of... also writ large in that is "we don't have time/money to do all that stupid health stuff... so stop bothering me..."
I get that alot.
Case To Point of why this is a bad idea: Center for Disease Control (CDC) Report 16 Apr 09
I just recieved my weekly CDC update.
Here is the ABSTRACT: "CDC received reports of 1,505 cases of malaria among persons in the United States, including one transfusion-related case and one fatal case, with onset of symptoms in 2007. The highest estimated relative case rates of malaria among travelers occurred among those returning from West Africa. Of 701 U.S. civilians who acquired malaria abroad, 441 (62.9%) reported that they had not followed an appropriate chemoprophylactic drug regimen. Persons at risk for malaria infection should take one of the recommended chemoprophylaxis regimens appropriate for the region of travel and use personal protection measures to prevent mosquito bites."
(Reference:
http://www.cdc.gov:80/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5802a1.htm?s_cid=ss5802a1_e
April 17, 2009 / 58(SS02);1-16
Malaria Surveillance --- United States, 2007
Sonja Mali, MPH Stefanie Steele, RN, MPH Laurence Slutsker, MD, MPH Paul M. Arguin, MD )
COMMENTARY: Malaria is a horrible disease to contract. Even when you take the pills, you can still get a minor case with lesser long-term problems... but Malaria kills 9 million people every year in the world... including missionaries. I have had 3 cases of returning missionaries in my practice who didn't take the meds or do the 'don't get bit!" stuff, and they got cerebral malaria and still can't walk a straight line and have all kinds of health issues, many years later...
Seeing the CDC data, and the "441 (62.9%) reported that they had not followed an appropriate chemoprophylactic drug regimen"... I'm Just Wondering how many of that reported number of Americans who contracted Malaria in West Africa were pastors or missionaries who didn't take the meds because "God will protect us" or "we'll just deal with it if it happens" or "I ain't got time/money"...?
CLOSING: I have posted on my website www.bajmission.com a couple of general pages of missionary health stuff, mainly prevention... and prevention of the stuff that can kill you or really goof up your life for a long time. It's free of charge... I hope more people read it and do something about it!! And yes, I am still hoping to do seminar and training sessions for missionaries so the Stay Healthy on their Mission Trips... cbaj
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Baja Mexico 5.6% Evangelical: Mexico 9.9%... why??
I'm Just Wondering... why Baja Mexico is only reporting at 5.6% Evangelical Christians, while the overall Mexican naitonal average, as reported by the Mexican gov't in 2000 was 9.9%
A good Mexican pastor friend of mine brought this to my attention a few years ago... then posed the really obvious thing: why is Baja less than the national Mexican average, when Baja Mexico is one of the most-visited and possibly largest recipient of short-term mission outreachers, donations and projects... in the world ???
Baja Norte... the Mexican state with a population 2.8 million Mexicans... being the most visited (estimated 700,000 short-term outreach visitors per year), receiving tons of donations (sooo many San Diego based ministries bringing truckloads of donated food, clothing , blankets, household supplies... estimated to be around $20 million worth in 2005... mainly because of proximity to the US border...) and projects (estimated that there were over 2,000 houses built by various groups from the US and Canada in Baja in 2005).... and most (not all) the groups are faith-based that do all this outreaching, donating and projects (every church I know of in San Diego claims to have some ministry arm in Tijuana, the largest city in Baja)...
His point was that intuition would say that Baja, with all the above being true... Baja should have a HIGHER percentage of Christians from all that outreach effort than the Mexican national average... at least the same.... certainly not less...
But there it is... 5.6%!
(By the way, actual practicing Catholics run about 40% in Baja, a stat that has remained constant for about 20 years... practicing means they attend church every week).
I'll leave this installment at this point... do visit my previous blogs about my hopes for the church of Latin America and Mexico...
I'm Just Wondering... what in the world is going on that screams out "only 5.6%"...??? cbaj
(Editors note: This blog was updated on 20 Apr because I had better numbers from the Mexicna govt... the short-term outreach numbers came from a working group I was a part of, consisting of Protestant missionaries who live and work in Baja,... based on a number of data points gathered from the internet, local news... also, important to note that not all short-term work in Baja comes from faith-based groups; Habitat for Humanity builds a 100+ houses in TJ every year, the Rotary has a pretty active housebuilding and dispensary program... and of course the Catholic outreach programs are quite huge in Tijuana... CBaj)
A good Mexican pastor friend of mine brought this to my attention a few years ago... then posed the really obvious thing: why is Baja less than the national Mexican average, when Baja Mexico is one of the most-visited and possibly largest recipient of short-term mission outreachers, donations and projects... in the world ???
Baja Norte... the Mexican state with a population 2.8 million Mexicans... being the most visited (estimated 700,000 short-term outreach visitors per year), receiving tons of donations (sooo many San Diego based ministries bringing truckloads of donated food, clothing , blankets, household supplies... estimated to be around $20 million worth in 2005... mainly because of proximity to the US border...) and projects (estimated that there were over 2,000 houses built by various groups from the US and Canada in Baja in 2005).... and most (not all) the groups are faith-based that do all this outreaching, donating and projects (every church I know of in San Diego claims to have some ministry arm in Tijuana, the largest city in Baja)...
His point was that intuition would say that Baja, with all the above being true... Baja should have a HIGHER percentage of Christians from all that outreach effort than the Mexican national average... at least the same.... certainly not less...
But there it is... 5.6%!
(By the way, actual practicing Catholics run about 40% in Baja, a stat that has remained constant for about 20 years... practicing means they attend church every week).
I'll leave this installment at this point... do visit my previous blogs about my hopes for the church of Latin America and Mexico...
I'm Just Wondering... what in the world is going on that screams out "only 5.6%"...??? cbaj
(Editors note: This blog was updated on 20 Apr because I had better numbers from the Mexicna govt... the short-term outreach numbers came from a working group I was a part of, consisting of Protestant missionaries who live and work in Baja,... based on a number of data points gathered from the internet, local news... also, important to note that not all short-term work in Baja comes from faith-based groups; Habitat for Humanity builds a 100+ houses in TJ every year, the Rotary has a pretty active housebuilding and dispensary program... and of course the Catholic outreach programs are quite huge in Tijuana... CBaj)
Friday, April 10, 2009
$$ and Decreased Short-Term Missions 2009 Part 2
Part 2: A Better Future
Hello! In part 1 of this 2-part blog, I've asked questions about short-term outreach business in the grips of the economic crisis.
I ended Part 1 with the following question: SO, what will happen to the work of the Lord and the National Church in the countries that see a drop in short-term missionaries from the USA???
ANSWER: Not sure, but there is the massive potential for a better future of the National Churches and the work of God in all the countries of the world.
Background: 15% on average
Here's the background. In the Latin block, which includes Mexico... from the US-Mex border to the tip of Argentina in South America... the data indicates that each Latin country has around 10-20% of it's population reporting to be Evangelical Christians... average of 15%
The Mexican government is reporting an overall 9.9% Protestant population (be careful when you visit their website, the math is confusing... I calculated off the raw data numbers)
WHHHHAT? You say! Yes, toss all that stuff about 'Mexico is 99% Catholic'... Mexican Govt, 2000 says the Catholic % is 88%, but that only 46% attend Catholic services regularly... most people believe that 'cultural Catholicism' accounts for the other 42%, meaning they think they are Catholic, even though they only attend Christmas, 15th birthdays, weddings and funerals...
The rise of the middle class in Latin America has corresponded directly with the rise of a significant percentage of Evangelical Christians. Some countries run average 12-15%, while others run 22-25%. Romine Ministries reports Guatemala at 22%, the Assemblies report Nicaragua at 18%. In Mexico, some regions run 14% (Chiapas and Tobasco), while other areas run less (Baja Norte/Tijuana: 5.6% ). These statistics are actually, in many cases hard governmental census data, such as the Mexican numbers.
In Mexico, the politics of the country has made a significant outreach to the Evangelical voting block, and the current Mexican President, Filipe Caldaron is a declared Evangelical.
OK... so basically 1 out of every 5-10 Latinos are Evangelicals. 10-20%.
The Better Future
Here's my idea: let the economic crisis keep the short-term missionaries home. It's time the 15% Latin Evangelicals get out of their nice chairs and begin to do the China thing.
What's the China thing? Well, communist China is closed to short-term missionary efforts. The vibrant Chinese church has gone totally ballistic in reaching out to people for the Kingdom. More people become Christians every day in China than all the other places on earth combined ... and the evangelism is 99% done by Chinese Christians.
Maybe a closed China is the best thing.
Maybe a Latin America unvisited-by-Western-short-term would also be a great thing.
SO... here I am, hoping that the Latin Evangelicals will get up out of their chairs, see that the Americans are not coming any more, and hear the still, small Voice of God that it's now their time to set aside their dependant-on-American ways... and RISE UP within their own countries and cities!!!
This could be a glorious and better future... a Latin church that is walking in responsibility, having seen that taking such responsibility and action gets quite the backing of GOD on their behalf... a strong and healthy and effective Latin church for Latin America.
My greatest hope is that, in a decade, the Latin leaders will invite us all over for burritos and show us how they did it.
That, in my view is a better... and more Biblical... future for Latin America.
(note: this blog updated 20 April becuase I had goofed the numbers previously... for the Mexican Gov't numbers, go to
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/rutinas/ept.asp?t=mrel08&s=est&c=2589
... I apologise for trusting old data notes, when the Mex gov't has revised their numbers to be more accurate)
Hello! In part 1 of this 2-part blog, I've asked questions about short-term outreach business in the grips of the economic crisis.
I ended Part 1 with the following question: SO, what will happen to the work of the Lord and the National Church in the countries that see a drop in short-term missionaries from the USA???
ANSWER: Not sure, but there is the massive potential for a better future of the National Churches and the work of God in all the countries of the world.
Background: 15% on average
Here's the background. In the Latin block, which includes Mexico... from the US-Mex border to the tip of Argentina in South America... the data indicates that each Latin country has around 10-20% of it's population reporting to be Evangelical Christians... average of 15%
The Mexican government is reporting an overall 9.9% Protestant population (be careful when you visit their website, the math is confusing... I calculated off the raw data numbers)
WHHHHAT? You say! Yes, toss all that stuff about 'Mexico is 99% Catholic'... Mexican Govt, 2000 says the Catholic % is 88%, but that only 46% attend Catholic services regularly... most people believe that 'cultural Catholicism' accounts for the other 42%, meaning they think they are Catholic, even though they only attend Christmas, 15th birthdays, weddings and funerals...
The rise of the middle class in Latin America has corresponded directly with the rise of a significant percentage of Evangelical Christians. Some countries run average 12-15%, while others run 22-25%. Romine Ministries reports Guatemala at 22%, the Assemblies report Nicaragua at 18%. In Mexico, some regions run 14% (Chiapas and Tobasco), while other areas run less (Baja Norte/Tijuana: 5.6% ). These statistics are actually, in many cases hard governmental census data, such as the Mexican numbers.
In Mexico, the politics of the country has made a significant outreach to the Evangelical voting block, and the current Mexican President, Filipe Caldaron is a declared Evangelical.
OK... so basically 1 out of every 5-10 Latinos are Evangelicals. 10-20%.
The Better Future
Here's my idea: let the economic crisis keep the short-term missionaries home. It's time the 15% Latin Evangelicals get out of their nice chairs and begin to do the China thing.
What's the China thing? Well, communist China is closed to short-term missionary efforts. The vibrant Chinese church has gone totally ballistic in reaching out to people for the Kingdom. More people become Christians every day in China than all the other places on earth combined ... and the evangelism is 99% done by Chinese Christians.
Maybe a closed China is the best thing.
Maybe a Latin America unvisited-by-Western-short-term would also be a great thing.
SO... here I am, hoping that the Latin Evangelicals will get up out of their chairs, see that the Americans are not coming any more, and hear the still, small Voice of God that it's now their time to set aside their dependant-on-American ways... and RISE UP within their own countries and cities!!!
This could be a glorious and better future... a Latin church that is walking in responsibility, having seen that taking such responsibility and action gets quite the backing of GOD on their behalf... a strong and healthy and effective Latin church for Latin America.
My greatest hope is that, in a decade, the Latin leaders will invite us all over for burritos and show us how they did it.
That, in my view is a better... and more Biblical... future for Latin America.
(note: this blog updated 20 April becuase I had goofed the numbers previously... for the Mexican Gov't numbers, go to
http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/espanol/rutinas/ept.asp?t=mrel08&s=est&c=2589
... I apologise for trusting old data notes, when the Mex gov't has revised their numbers to be more accurate)
Thursday, April 9, 2009
King Canute and the commanding of the tide
Ever hear of the story of King canute?
I personally dig the discovery of something that everybody thought they had figured out...
This comes from Reg Connolly and the NLP Institute (Neuro-Linguistic Programming Institute, http://www.pe2000.com/canute)
Well, the popular story of King Canute is that he placed his throne on the beach so that he could sit and command the tides not to come in. As the story goes, yes, the tides came in and the good King was sitting with water swirling around his ankles and his chair in the surf.
It is usually quoted as an example of trying to do things that are absolutely impossible in a real world, and the foolish people who try them.
Well, Connolly has found the bit usually cited is not the whole story…
First, the King was real. Check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute
Cnut the Great, also known as Canute or Knut (Old Norse: Knútr inn ríki;[1]died 12 November 1035) was a Viking king of England, Denmark and Norway.
The full story is that King Canute had a very demanding and cantankerous bunch in his Kingdom. He was always being taken to task by the people in his kingdom for not doing enough, or not accomplishing what (the people thought) should be done.
(Of course, it’s always easy to push somebody to the place of responsibility… in politics, academia, ecclesia… put them up on the pedestal… then go find your pistols…)
So, this wise King put his throne out on the beach and commanded the tide to not come in. When the tide came in, as he expected it would, he used it to teach his people that even the king was not omnipotent and all-powerful to make anything happen…
Wikipedia has more to say:
Henry of Huntingdon, the 12th-century chronicler, tells how Cnut set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes; but the tide failed to stop. According to Henry, Cnut leapt backwards and said "Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws." He then hung his gold crown on a crucifix, and never wore it again.[79]
This story may be apocryphal. While the contemporary Encomium Emmae has no mention of it, it would seem that so pious a dedication might have been recorded there, since the same source gives an "eye-witness account of his lavish gifts to the monasteries and poor of St Omer when on the way to Rome, and of the tears and breast-beating which accompanied them".[80] Goscelin, writing later in the 11th century, instead has Cnut place his crown on a crucifix at Winchester one Easter, with no mention of the sea, and 'with the explanation that the king of kings was more worthy of it than he'.[81] However there may be a "basis of fact, in a planned act of piety" behind this story, and Henry of Huntingdon cites it as an example of the king's "nobleness and greatness of mind".[82] Later historians repeated the story, most of them adjusting it to have Cnut more clearly aware that the tides would not obey him, and staging the scene to rebuke the flattery of his courtiers; and there are earlier Celtic parallels in stories of men who commanded the tides, namely Saint Illtud, Maelgwn, king of Gwynedd, and Tuirbe, of Tuirbe's Strand, in Brittany.[83]
The encounter with the waves is said to have taken place at Bosham in West Sussex, or Southampton in Hampshire.
<><>
King Canute… may we all capture the meaning of true humility seasoned with reality!!!
I personally dig the discovery of something that everybody thought they had figured out...
This comes from Reg Connolly and the NLP Institute (Neuro-Linguistic Programming Institute, http://www.pe2000.com/canute)
Well, the popular story of King Canute is that he placed his throne on the beach so that he could sit and command the tides not to come in. As the story goes, yes, the tides came in and the good King was sitting with water swirling around his ankles and his chair in the surf.
It is usually quoted as an example of trying to do things that are absolutely impossible in a real world, and the foolish people who try them.
Well, Connolly has found the bit usually cited is not the whole story…
First, the King was real. Check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute
Cnut the Great, also known as Canute or Knut (Old Norse: Knútr inn ríki;[1]died 12 November 1035) was a Viking king of England, Denmark and Norway.
The full story is that King Canute had a very demanding and cantankerous bunch in his Kingdom. He was always being taken to task by the people in his kingdom for not doing enough, or not accomplishing what (the people thought) should be done.
(Of course, it’s always easy to push somebody to the place of responsibility… in politics, academia, ecclesia… put them up on the pedestal… then go find your pistols…)
So, this wise King put his throne out on the beach and commanded the tide to not come in. When the tide came in, as he expected it would, he used it to teach his people that even the king was not omnipotent and all-powerful to make anything happen…
Wikipedia has more to say:
Henry of Huntingdon, the 12th-century chronicler, tells how Cnut set his throne by the sea shore and commanded the tide to halt and not wet his feet and robes; but the tide failed to stop. According to Henry, Cnut leapt backwards and said "Let all men know how empty and worthless is the power of kings, for there is none worthy of the name, but He whom heaven, earth, and sea obey by eternal laws." He then hung his gold crown on a crucifix, and never wore it again.[79]
This story may be apocryphal. While the contemporary Encomium Emmae has no mention of it, it would seem that so pious a dedication might have been recorded there, since the same source gives an "eye-witness account of his lavish gifts to the monasteries and poor of St Omer when on the way to Rome, and of the tears and breast-beating which accompanied them".[80] Goscelin, writing later in the 11th century, instead has Cnut place his crown on a crucifix at Winchester one Easter, with no mention of the sea, and 'with the explanation that the king of kings was more worthy of it than he'.[81] However there may be a "basis of fact, in a planned act of piety" behind this story, and Henry of Huntingdon cites it as an example of the king's "nobleness and greatness of mind".[82] Later historians repeated the story, most of them adjusting it to have Cnut more clearly aware that the tides would not obey him, and staging the scene to rebuke the flattery of his courtiers; and there are earlier Celtic parallels in stories of men who commanded the tides, namely Saint Illtud, Maelgwn, king of Gwynedd, and Tuirbe, of Tuirbe's Strand, in Brittany.[83]
The encounter with the waves is said to have taken place at Bosham in West Sussex, or Southampton in Hampshire.
<><>
King Canute… may we all capture the meaning of true humility seasoned with reality!!!
$$ and Decreased Short-Term Missions 2009... Part 1
09 Apr 09
I'm Just Wondering... again...
Will the economic crunch of 2008-2010 (and that's a short prediction of duration, according to everybody!) result in a significant decrease in short-term missions???
Part 1: Yes, the numbers appear to be dropping
For me, there are three 'mission areas' that I am always watching... domestic (ie, never leave the borders of the continential USA), Mexico/Latin American block, and the 'rest of the world'.
Why those three? I think the 'proximity of desination and ease of travel' have alot to do with it (versus the usual bluster about a Divine call to go somewhere and be with some peeps there...)
Well, data from Mission Makers Magazine 2009 (p19) , which is a pretty well-put-together trade paper for the short-term mission trip business... well, it says in recent years (read: before the Econ $$ Implosion of 2008), that 1/3 of all short-term misisons went to 'domestic' sites (like Katrina relief), 1/3 to Mexico (mainly Mexico) and the Latin block, and the other 1/3 around the world.
What of post-economic crash numbers?
It may be too early to tell, but preliminary reports for the current 2009 spring-break short-term mission season... which is only dwarfed in market share by the summer break short-term mission blitz to come... are that bookings and travel by groups internationally, including Mexico and the Latin block... are way, way down for 2009.
This could be interesting to watch. In the last financial crunch of the mid-90's, so many groups cancelled their international trips and suddenly changed their plans, 'feeling called to go to Mexico instead'... once again, proximity seems to be a big bit of Divine discernment in hard $$ times...
Definitely, the mission travel to Tijuana and Baja Norte, Mexico are super-way down, mainly out of fear of the drug war violence here (which is very, very real and heart-breaking), and the US State Dept posting a "danger, Will Robinson (robot arms flailing at this point...)" on their website. Not bad advice: Tijuana is a dangerous place right now... not for the run-of-the-mill short-term outreacher...
Regarding the Short Term Misisons and the Econ $$ Crash of 2008... My prediction IS....
I predict the short-term numbers to drop way out in the next 18 months. My estimation: > 50%... over half of the groups or people who may have been going (and previously predicted to go, based on the ever-increasing trend) on a short-term missions trip internationally will choose to go locally or stay domestically... Katrina, rebuild the flooded towns from the river swellings, etc... Local soup kitchens may actually get some much-needed help from the church down the street...
SO, what will happen to the work of the Lord and the National Church in the countries that see a drop in short-term missionaries from the USA???
That will be Part 2....
cbaj
I'm Just Wondering... again...
Will the economic crunch of 2008-2010 (and that's a short prediction of duration, according to everybody!) result in a significant decrease in short-term missions???
Part 1: Yes, the numbers appear to be dropping
For me, there are three 'mission areas' that I am always watching... domestic (ie, never leave the borders of the continential USA), Mexico/Latin American block, and the 'rest of the world'.
Why those three? I think the 'proximity of desination and ease of travel' have alot to do with it (versus the usual bluster about a Divine call to go somewhere and be with some peeps there...)
Well, data from Mission Makers Magazine 2009 (p19) , which is a pretty well-put-together trade paper for the short-term mission trip business... well, it says in recent years (read: before the Econ $$ Implosion of 2008), that 1/3 of all short-term misisons went to 'domestic' sites (like Katrina relief), 1/3 to Mexico (mainly Mexico) and the Latin block, and the other 1/3 around the world.
What of post-economic crash numbers?
It may be too early to tell, but preliminary reports for the current 2009 spring-break short-term mission season... which is only dwarfed in market share by the summer break short-term mission blitz to come... are that bookings and travel by groups internationally, including Mexico and the Latin block... are way, way down for 2009.
This could be interesting to watch. In the last financial crunch of the mid-90's, so many groups cancelled their international trips and suddenly changed their plans, 'feeling called to go to Mexico instead'... once again, proximity seems to be a big bit of Divine discernment in hard $$ times...
Definitely, the mission travel to Tijuana and Baja Norte, Mexico are super-way down, mainly out of fear of the drug war violence here (which is very, very real and heart-breaking), and the US State Dept posting a "danger, Will Robinson (robot arms flailing at this point...)" on their website. Not bad advice: Tijuana is a dangerous place right now... not for the run-of-the-mill short-term outreacher...
Regarding the Short Term Misisons and the Econ $$ Crash of 2008... My prediction IS....
I predict the short-term numbers to drop way out in the next 18 months. My estimation: > 50%... over half of the groups or people who may have been going (and previously predicted to go, based on the ever-increasing trend) on a short-term missions trip internationally will choose to go locally or stay domestically... Katrina, rebuild the flooded towns from the river swellings, etc... Local soup kitchens may actually get some much-needed help from the church down the street...
SO, what will happen to the work of the Lord and the National Church in the countries that see a drop in short-term missionaries from the USA???
That will be Part 2....
cbaj
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