H5N1 + H1N1 could = ???

I'm Just Wondering... how things like Pandemics start...

Here was my morning email from Yale Infectious disease (top-notch scientists and doctors and researchers, maybe the best of the best)... and realize, these people are not alarmists... note the Moderators H5N1 + H1N1 comments, which are really science-speak for nightmare scenario...

AVIAN INFLUENZA (36): CHINA (QINGHAI), WILD BIRDS***********************************************
A ProMED-mail post<http://www.promedmail.org>ProMED-mail is a program of theInternational Society for Infectious Diseases<http://www.isid.org>
Date: Mon 18 May 2009Source: Huanqiu.com [trans. Rapp.AH, edited]<http://healthmap.org/ln.php?199052&u3439>

On 17 May 2009, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture announced that the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory had confirmed avian influenza among migratory birds in Qinghai province. According to the briefing, the regional veterinary departments in Gahai found dead migratory birds on 8 May 2009. Specimens were collected and sent for testing. On 12 May 2009, the Qinghai Provincial Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center detected weak positive signals for highly pathogenic avian influenza using RT-PCR. On 17 May 2009, the birds were confirmed to be infected with highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza by the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory. As of yesterday [17 May 2009], 121 wild birds had died.In response to the outbreak, access to the affected area was restricted for disinfection and culling of backyard poultry. All 121 dead wild birds and 600 culled poultry have been processed.At present, there has been no disruption of life. No outbreak among poultry has been found in Qinghai province.- --
Communicated by:HealthMap alerts via ProMED-mailRapporteur Angela Huang

[An official notification on the said outbreak has been sent to the OIE by Dr Zhang Zhongqui, Deputy Director General, China Animal Disease Control Centre, Veterinary Bureau, Beijing, PRC on 17 May 2009. According to the report, the measures to be applied are: "Vaccination in response to the outbreak."
See, with map, at <http://www.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=event_summary&reportid=8107>.

Information on the species involved in this so-called "migratory birds" event is anticipated. An extensive outbreak in wild geese and other wild birds was observed in Qinghai exactly 4 years ago, in May 2005. It was followed by an outbreak in neighboring Xinjiang autonomous region.Since the appearance of the novel A/H1N1 swine-related virus in the international arena in April 2009, the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus has been put, unjustifiably but not surprisingly, somewhat outside the public spotlights. Simultaneous circulation of both viruses may lead to serious consequences, particularly in countries with considerable pig populations, in case co-infection of pigs with both viruses occur, potentially followed by virus reassortments. These may, if the worse scenario materializes, potentially combine the infectivity in humans of the novel H1N1 with the high pathogenicity of HPAI H5N1. China has the potential to be the site of such development, deserving close follow-up and effective, immediate control measures. - Mod.AS]

H1N1... testing, testing...

I'm Just Wondering when we are going to get serious about emerging infectious diseases.

H1N1 "swine flu 2009" was just a dry run for the really really nasty 'next one' coming... we got off very, very nicely with a flu that acts basically like the normal seasonal flu that kills ONLY 1 out of 1000 people that get it.... we found the genome quick, able to replicate it for vaccine, it stayed a STABLE virus (not always the case)...

So... what is the Church going to do in the face of an overwhelming pandemic disease in 2010 that has no vaccine, has no medicine to treat it, is highly infectious within the general public, and has a high mortality rate??? Is every "Bible - believing Christian" going to board up their houses and keep people away with a shot-gun security system??

As a healthcare worker, I am struck with the fact that (reportedly) half of the physicians that entered medical practice in the 1800's contracted Tuberculosis, many of these docs dying of the disease. I am struck by the history of foriegn missionaries who suffered a near-50% mortality within the first 5 years of foreign service, usually due to malaria, yellow fever, typhoid and dissentery.

More than the data, I am struck that so many people, knowing that reality, chose anyway to practice medicine and become foreign missionaries... they counted the cost, and followed Jesus into the place they were called by Him... fearless, it would seem...

Hmmmm....

Star Trek, Visions of the Future and $160 million

I'm Just Wondering... why it costs so much for us to examine ourselves?

The movie Star Trek came out last week, it is totally 10/10 movie for me (disclosure: I saw the first Star Trek episode broadcast, and have been hooked ever since). I have always loved how Star Trek was (and is) a platform for looking at our culture, race and relationships... as well as culture, war, racism, role of technology, etc...

Basic facts: the new movie Star Trek runs 126 minutes. The movie finally cost (as is being reported in the Hollywood blogs) $160 million dollars (Paramount reported initial budget of 120)... so, FYI, that is 1.269 million dollars PER MINUTE...

Think of that when the wierd scene takes place where the young Kirk is running across the screen on the ice planet...

SO... it takes 1.269 a minute to collectively do some self-examination and dream ourselves into a better future.

(Yeah, I know, Paramount will make a Billion on this movie in the next year...)

Anyway... bolding going where no one has gone before.... cbaj

Mexico's response to H1N1 flu

I'm Just Wondering ... how did Mexico really do in the emerging H1N1 crisis phase?

Important analysis article about this in the Economist today...

http://www.economist.com/world/americas/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13610935&source=hptextfeature

I do know the Baja power-play/drama played out very strange, with denials by the Governor and the Secretary of Health that there were any (any!) cases of H1N1 in Baja, while the World Health Organiztion published on their website 3 days before the 4 comfirmed cases in Mexicali, and ProMed (Yale Infectious Disease) that cases were + in Tijuana... nothing happened from this wierd situation, the patients apparantly all recovered...

... but what about next time? What about a real regional emergency with higher stakes??

cbaj

Happy is a Yuppie Word, but...

I'm Just Wondering... what is it that is missing in our culture that makes us sooooo painfully looking for the exit....

Bob Dylan is creditied for answering the question to him, "Are you happy?" by answering "Happy is a yuppie word. It's either that you're blessed... or not..."

So this article turns up on Yahoo! today

"World's Happiest Places
A new report reveals where people feel most positive about their lives" at
http://travel.yahoo.com/p-interests-27761674;_ylc=X3oDMTFzODRwOWZjBF9TAzI3MTYxNDkEX3MDMjcxOTQ4MQRzZWMDZnAtdG9kYXltb2QEc2xrA2hhcHB5cGxhY2VzLTUtOS0wOQ--

says "Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands rated at the top of the list, ranking first, second and third, respectively. Outside Europe, New Zealand and Canada landed at Nos. 8 and 6, respectively. The United States did not crack the top 10. Switzerland placed seventh and Belgium placed tenth."

Then it had this kicker... quote

"According to a 2005 editorial, published in the British Medical Journal and written by Dr. Tony Delamothe, research done in Mexico, Ghana, Sweden, the U.S. and the U.K. shows that individuals typically get richer during their lifetimes, but not happier. It is family, social and community networks that bring joy to one's life, according to Delamothe."

I'll have to check out this BMJ reserach, but... IT'S FAMILY, SOCIAL AND COMMUNITY NETWORKS that bring joy to one's life... hmmm, sounds like somethings that Jesus said about the Kingdom...

cbaj

Truth in tension versus Kumbaya... and the economy 09

9 May

I'm Just Wondering... when will we all be able to understand that the Universe is built on tension of opposing forces... it's not about Kumbaya and flowers gently floating down...

My physicis classes at the University were filled with the fundamental laws of Thermodynamics and the Forces of the Universe... and they all live in opposition to each other, but with relationship and repect can live IN the tension... matter of fact, without the strong attraction being opposed by strong repulsion at an elemental level, all matter (and that means anything that matters...) would either collape upon itself, or go flying apart...

The Framers of the United States Constitution NEVER envisioned bi-partisanshop... quite the opposite! Having two opposing discussions helps to find the political balance! Keeps us all honest and needing to entertain another idea.

The US economy has moved off the main radar screen of the media, but not the slow meltdown that the average American worker and family is experiencing... the 'econ crisis weariness' has set in, and only rosy economic news seems to be 'leaking' out...

I strongly suggest we keep an eye on a radical economic theorist... Paul Krugman... his blog is
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Yes, he's a screaming liberal (admittedly), but we'd better think that maybe he has some things to say...

When I was younger, I thought like a child... that we should all hold hands and sing Kumbaya together.... now I understand that our differences and differing ideas may actually be a Gift to course-correct all of us... because all have fallen short of the Glory... especially me!

Baja Mexican Officials: Old (Bad) Mexico 2009

I'm Just Wondering... when the Baja Mexican officials and Church Leaders will wake up and figure out that the Old Bad Mexico won't work anymore.

The Governor of Baja Norte, Osuna and the Baja Norte Secretary of Health, Dr Bustamonte have both repeatly denied that there is H1N1 flu confirmed in Baja Norte. The CD and World Health both have (at least 2) positive confirmed lab tests from patients in Mexicali. Osuna and Bustamonte say the lab tests are wrong, and they have run those tests in their labs and found them to be negative.

Liars.

There is a very, very old Mexican authority problem. It is authority believing their power means "You will do what I say, and you will believe what I tell you, and you will not question any of it!!" Yes, it is not exclusively a Mexican problem.

However, my last 5 years of mission ministry has been dealing with this very issue in Mexican Church leadership, even when the facts are exploding in thier face.

It complicates the Latin ethic of saving face... first the facts the authority don't want to face, then their 'I am in charge her, so do what I tell you', then that all unravels... then they become more abusinve in an attempt to maintain control and save face...

This triggers my disgust for lies in Mexico. I have had to abondon working with 2 Mexican healthcare ministries in Baja because the chief (Mexican) doctor refused to admit to officials that a pastor was having sex with a nursing home resident, even when the facts were quite the opposite (like an STD) and he privately admitted it all to be true... "but I am in control, and if we remove the Pastor, the ministry will close down..."

Duh.

The thing about the truth... it eventually comes out, and the liars and cover-up artists look worse than if they just admitted to the truth. "Walk in the light" hasn't quite gotten into the DNA of many in authority inside and outside of the Church... now THAT would be a great virus for everyone to catch!!